Monthly Archives: May 2016

Why Hillary Can’t Win

Math (and other things)

Fair warning folks: I’m an Electrical Engineer who’s on the Aspergers spectrum. This means I’ve a penchant for Facts, History, and linked citations to support my claims, with the ability to see mid & large scale patterns over time in much the same way that most people see differences in primary colors, along with an insane memory for details and the interconnections between various patterns. I adore Facts and taking note of Actions, while putting little to no weight on words. These are very useful tools in addressing politics.

Yes, I’m a hard core Bernie Sanders fan, but the intent of this isn’t to shill for him. It’s to show you the Facts, History, and Math of why I believe as I do, ask you to examine evidence, think, and then make your decision as befits YOUR values. If we disagree so be it; I’ll agree to disagree.

#FeelTheMath Of Shifting Voters

In the coming General Election there’s a deadly serious problem for Hillary & the DNC in that the majority of State Democratic Committees are actively silencing Independent voters… and We know it. Totally aside from the moral and Constitutional issues of using Public Tax Dollars to hold Private Elections which prohibit nearly half of Citizens from voting, by the use of capricious, self serving, and arbitrary rules; this raises a separate problem which wasn’t evident until 2008. That problem is that our two presumptive candidates for POTUS are being selected with ZERO input from +45% of Voters

Currently, Independent voters are, by FAR, the largest segment of voters which is at over 45% of all voters and increasing fast. Just 6 months ago this segment comprised 43% & last year it was 41%.  Meanwhile the Democratic Party is at 27% (down from 31% a year ago) and the Republican party is at 20% (down front 26% a year ago)

Poll: Independents Will Soon Outnumber Republicans and Democrats Combined

So, let’s recap and run the math:

I = 45% ⤴ of voters

D = 27% ⤵ of voter

R = 20% ⤵  of voters

We know, from elections & from polls, that Hillary Clinton has roughly 50% of the 27% of Democratic voters. That equals 13.5% of total voters.

We also know, from elections & polls, that Bernie Sanders has roughly 50% of Democratic Voters or 13.5% of total voters.

We know, from elections & polls that Donald Trump has roughly 70% of the 20% of Republican voters or 14% of total voters.

Ok, great!  We’ve got us a horse race. Right? Not so fast me Bucko!  What about the 45% of voters who haven’t gotten to speak yet (of which a large portion are Sanders supporters).

If even half of those Independents vote for Sanders that’s another 22.5% of the total vote which, added the 13.5% from his share of the Democratic voters makes 36%!  Will it go that way? Perhaps, but not likely. It depends upon how pissed those voters are. What is likely is that +1/3 of those Independents vote for him in the General which give us results which look more like this for Bernie Sanders:

1/3) 13.5% + 15% = 28.5% of total votes which is more than double Hillary’s share of 13.5%. Even if we’re generous and give Hillary 10% of Indies (unlikely: see footnote below) she comes out with 13.5% + 4.5% = 18% of total voters.

Now do you see why the DNC is so terribly desperate to declare by fiat that “The election is Over and Done, NOW, but for the crying?!”

*Footnote on these numbers:

Yes, I’m absolutely skewing Independent voters towards Bernie and there’s a good reason for it. Independent voters are a notoriously cantankerous, non-conforming, non-compliant lot who ask hard, terribly inconvenient, questions with little to no regard for Party “propriety”or thier rules, and we vote based upon Facts & History of Actions, not pretty words. I know this because I are one, as are my friends. I’m also disregarding Donald Trump here because any support for him amongst independent voters is massively splintered amongst the Koch funded Tea Party, Fascists, Racists, and what used to be called Birchers.

Last but not least are these Super Delegates. Yes, they’re designed to protect establishment candidates from grass roots challenges, but most of them are political critters as well. This means that they, like the rest of us will guard their hog troughs first above any other consideration.  First I’d like to note that in just the past week Hillary has lost 3 of them to Bernie and a fourth to prison under criminal conviction for fraud. I don’t think he’ll be out in time to cast a vote. Those other three make this situation look very similar to that of 2008 when we taught Hillary to not count her eggs before they’re chicken because some of them might actually be omelets in the making. In the case of ’08 we quite literally saw an avalanche of such shifts, and with all the other similarities here, I’m seriously wondering if we’re not seeing the beginnings of another avalanche as Super Delegates start shift in the winds of public opinion.

Another factor that these folks know is that the NEVER, EVER, talked about Independent voters were at near parity with the two major parties and now nearly exceed BOTH parties combined. They haven’t figured out what this means yet in terms of their jobs, but it scares the crap out of them because the only tools they have are Logical Fallacies to assert dominance and We The People simply aren’t buying that any longer.

Here’s the DNC/GOP Debate Manual in full:

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com

The hard part for these supers is we Citizens are fed up with paying all the costs of, while seeing zero benefits from, their Trickle Down “Economics” lies. They know we’re pissed, but not how pissed. Are we annoyed enough to start heating Tar & gathering Feathers? They don’t know. We might be & that scares them.

As it should!

History & Facts

We’ve been hearing from the mainstream media that Hillary Clinton is the inevitable pick for the job of POTUS for a bit over a year now because, supposedly, “It’s her turn” and because, again supposedly, “We must pick the lesser of the evils on offer”. We’re also told from the get go that Bernie Sanders is unelectable because he’s a “Socialist” with the implied, and sometimes stated, false conflation that this epithet is equal to “Communist”.
Last, but not least we’re told that “Clinton is inevitable because she has all the Super delegates”.

None of these things are true and I’ll show you why.

First, the “It’s her turn” myth:
While I absolutely agree that it’s about damned time we had a woman for President of these United States, and I worked as a grass roots member of the Run Warren Run campaign, I’m absolutely certain that there’s nowhere in Our Constitution which has a single word to say about anyone being owed a turn at any elected position in our government, much less the job of POTUS.
I’ve read it stem to stern and I’m certain of this, but as is my wont,  I’ll offer the evidence and let you decide for yourself:
http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html

Next there’s the claim that “We must pick the lesser of the evils”.
While I generally agree with this maxim in life, in todays’ politics it’s become somewhat less than useful because have been regressively destroyed by wealthy interests seeking power for over 40 years now, which culminated in the Citizens United.
This decision allows wealthy corporations and insanely wealthy people to openly use shell (or sham) corporations to pump as much cash into a political race, or multiple political races, as they wish. This one fact has made the Lesser Evil maxim nearly useless to Citizens for over 20 years now because campaigns are expensive and these folks are flat buying both sides of the aisle using those now unlimited campaign “contributions”.
No, we can’t directly prove that “our” individual elected officials are bought because they’re exceedingly careful to hide the iron fist of Quid Pro Quo under a velvet glove of plausible deniability, but we can see it in the effects on our laws and the economic policy used by these bought officials.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article41897.htm
The second video is particularly damning, as are the links below the article.  The core of it is that we now live in an oligarchy where “The opinions and needs of ordinary Citizens has an infinitesimal, near zero, effect on which laws get passed”.
Oh, on that oligarchy claim… I’m not the only one who sees it
http://www.businessinsider.com/major-study-finds-that-the-us-is-an-oligarchy-2014-4

I’d also assert that the opinions and needs of ordinary Citizens also “has an infinitesimal, near zero, effect” (With lots of evidence) on who gets prosecuted for violating our laws; but that’s a discussion for another time.

Onward debunking this Lesser Evil meme…
Totally aside from this broader scale pattern in our society, I’m not at all sure that Mrs. Clinton actually is the “Lesser Evil” when I look at her Actions & History over the last 25 years I’ve watched her. Please note that I don’t know her IRL so this isn’t a discussion of character on any level, it’s simply a recitation of things she’s actually done  (Facts) with a look at the larger patterns, and results of those actions. If you wish to dispute any of it I’m good with that, but know that I use Facts only. I insist that you leave logical fallacies & rhetoric on your kitchen table; they’re not useful in any discussion with me; and will be promptly (possibly impolitely) called out.

Here’s what she’s done:
She loudly & publicly cosigned the racist, fascist, false flag War On Drugs, which was initiated in my generation by Tricky Dick Nixon.
What’s that? You say it was done because it’s a Public Health Issue? Well, that’s what we’ve been told by MSM for 50 years now, but we’ve (finally) got proof that this claim is just not so.
http://www.truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/the-modern-war-on-drugs-began-as-nixon-s-assault-on-blacks

Here’s some of the results of that Drug War:

Even though blacks use drugs at an almost precisely equal rate to whites they are arrested & imprisoned at a rate between 3:1 and 8:1 depending on where they live as compared to whites. In moderately wealthy families (over $100k/yr) this is a problem, but in inner city poor families it’s disasterous because it literally kicks the foundations of survival out from under the family which gives them even fewer “legitimate” options for survival. This sets them, almost inexorably, on a path of criminality or lifetime welfare. In my opinion this is a Bad Thing for many reasons (aside from my hatred of racisim), not the least of which is that the cost to Our society of imprisoning someone is far greater than the cost of educating them.

http://www.countthecosts.org/alternative-world-drug-report

http://www.businessinsider.com/32-reasons-why-we-need-to-end-the-war-on-drugs-2012-7

This doesn’t even consider the lost potential gains to society due to the mass poverty caused by these policies.

It’s disenfranchised and disowned a huge portion of our society by using a rigged system to enforce nonsensical rules in much the same way alcohol prohibition did, and with similar results. One of those results of those prohibition laws is that they, combined with a lack of opportunities, actually caused the “drug related” violence which in turn caused the “need” for Bill & Hillary Clintons’ Sentencing “Reform”.  https://www.tni.org/en/article/introduction-damaging-side-effects-war-drugs

As with alcohol prohibition, without that drug war prohibition there would have been no room (profit) for gangs to move into the production & distribution of drugs at anything near the levels we saw. There also wouldn’t have been the violence those gangs brought to the retail distribution & selling of drugs. Doubt me? Just walk into any liquor store. The proof is in front of you if you care to look and think for even a moment.

Here’s the pay off of the Drug War http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/06/opinion/branson-end-war-on-drugs/

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/07/29/opinion/high-time-the-injustice-of-marijuana-arrests.html?referer=

The simple Fact is that, especially in marijuana cases, we are severely prosecuting a victimless “crime” which harms no one. There is no sane justification here unless we start bringing religion into Law; which is strictly prohibited by the First Amendment to Our Constitution.

Next, Mrs. Clinton loudly & publicly cosigned that Sentencing “Reform” using dog whistles of “Super Predators” being brought to heel. Now some say this wasn’t racist, but in the context of the time, where the problem being discussed was happening almost exclusively in & near black, inner city, poverty stricken, communities, it absolutely was racist and pretty blatantly so.

Here’s the effects of that law (which expanded the false flag Drug War far beyond the wildest dreams)

The War on Drugs is a War on Poor Black and Brown People

http://www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/drug-legalization-criminalization-harm-reduction

Here’s an exhaustive treatment of the subject (4.3Mb)

http://www.cato.org/pubs/catosletter/catosletterv9n1.pdf&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiPxKPdi8PMAhVYz2MKHa0VD4wQFggaMAA&sig2=eo3ld6ntFxSp4IfsyBl0pg&usg=AFQjCNHmHBQ0ueATir-lmWJgT_7cYYV3QA

When I follow the money to ask “Who Profits from this?!” I can find no sane justification for these policies.

Hillary Clinton has, actively, supported EVERY war put in front of her.

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/13/hillary-clinton-has-long-history-of-collaboration-with-gop-on-foreign-policy/

In regards to the “Socialist” charge I’ve got several things to say the first of which is “Bullshit Your Logical Fallacy Is Strawman because you’re falsely conflating Democratic Socialism with Communist!”
See, Bernie is a Democratic Socialist candidate. Here’s what that looks like: http://millercenter.org/president/biography/fdroosevelt-impact-and-legacy Here’s his policies which the vast majority of us use in a daily basis: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal

Now to the “inevitability of Hillary as POTUS” numbers & math issue:

There, quite literally, is no way Hillary can win election without mass electoral fraud and voter suppression. We already have ample evidence of this in the massive “variances” between exit polls and vote totals. The reason I know this is the US has, for many decades, used exit polling variances to detect election fraud by governments by comparing those exit poll results to “actual” vote totals and watching for any variances above about 2%. We are currently seeing variances here in the double digits… and in many States.

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/04/27/democratic-primaries-426-exit-poll-anomalies-continued/

In the primary we have a situation where there will be a Contested Primary, barring blatant vote rigging (which we know is happening) by the DNC & State Committees.

This is What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention

Totally aside from these two issues is the DNC policy of using Super Delegates to disenfranchise and silence Democratic Voters who disagree with the establishment candidate. Ms. Shultz even admits as much on video.

“Unpledged Delegates exist, really, to insure that Party Officials and elected officials don’t have to be in a position of running against grass-roots activists.”

Ponder that a moment while you consider this:

My personal hope and suspicion is that, collectively, we are annoyed enough to stand united with independents against both parties and elect the one guy who WILL #DumpTrump rather than the woman who might.